Thank you to everyone who participated in the Super Bowl Squares fundraiser for 2022.
These young ladies appreciate the support.
The recorded video of the numbers being drawn by Emmily Potter can be viewed at https://gopro.com/v/KREP4BrqdayBK (fast forward to 1:15 for the drawing)
How are the winners determined?
At the end of quarter 1, 2, 3 and the final score, the second digit of each team’s score is used to identify the winning square — if the Rams lead the Bengals 17-13 at the end of the first quarter, the square that had Rams 7/Bengals 3 would win the cash the prize.
What are the odds of winning?
Because players select their squares before they have been assigned their numbers, a squares pool is a true game of chance.
That said, once the numbers have been assigned, it’s clear that some boxes are more advantageous than others, so we decided to run the numbers and break down the most valuable boxes in your Super Bowl squares pool.
There are two things to remember: we’re only concerned with the last number in the score, and for every 7-0 there’s a 0-7 splitting the probability. All told, 12.3% of the quarters ended with one team with a “0” in the ones column and the other with a “7”, but 0-7 and 7-0 would split that probability for a 6.1% chance of winning money in that spot.
Looking at the above chart, the best place to be for those hoping to cash is in the 0-0 spot. Given the ease that a quarter can end 0-0, 10-0 or 10-10, it’s by far your best bet, with 7.4% of all quarters ending that way throughout the 220 games we examined.
A few more notes we can glean from the data:
- Any score involving a 2, 5, 8 or 9 is a rough position to be in: those 44 boxes combine to make up only 13.8% of quarters.
- 92.5% of the time, the score at the end of the quarter involved a 0, 3, 4, or 7.
- No quarter in a playoff game in the 20 years we analyzed ended 9-9.
While the 0-0 square is the best to have early on, the chances of winning in a particular slot change throughout the game.
19.1% of first quarters end with the 0-0 box winning, 20.9% end wither 7-0 or 0-7, and 16.4% end 3-0 or 0-3. If you have those values, your chances get worse every single quarter. The 4-0 and 0-4 box wins 9.5% of first quarters but rises to 11.4% by halftime.
Depending on which square you have, your chances might be better to win at the end of the game than in the early-goings.
While it’s clear that the numbers you want your box to feature are 7 and 0, football is a crapshoot, and anything can happen. You can hope for the best box on the grid, but in both football and gambling, nothing is guaranteed.
Best of luck to you and your squares!